Obviously, they missed the global picture. World economy has been growing at a scorching pace of 4 per cent plus-the longest boom since the roaring 1950s-for over half this decade. Add the presence of the original group of reformers, the Singh Parivar. Like champion wind surfers, they enabled the economy to ride the waves to trigger a new expectation of 10-plus per cent GDP growth. Not surprisingly, 53 per cent expect the good times to continue. It is in the face of such high expectations that Chidambaram is authoring his next essay.

As with any expedition, the weather is critical. Strong inflationary winds could buffet growth ambitions. The sustained growth across four years has been driven by a low interest rate and EMI cult. But profligate policies, incompetent supply management have pushed up interest rates and threaten growth. It is quite an ironical contrast. Industry and business have managed to globalise after going through the pains of restructuring. However, governance is still in the 1900s. While 34 per cent blame the Left for the slowdown in reforms the fact that 40 per cent are unsure suggests that more than one party is to blame

POLL

48% of those in Punjab, 47% in Karnataka and 37% in Bihar feel better off than before. In contrast, over 60% of those in Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana find no improvement. Do you expect the economic situation to improve or worsen in the next six months? Remain the same 53 Will improve 31 Will get worse 8 All figures in per cent. Rest: Don't know/Can't say Has the UPA been successful in implementing the Common Minimum Programme? No 39 Yes 25 All figures in per cent. Rest: Don't know/Can't say Should the pay commission suggest hire and fire norms for government servants? Yes 51 No 16 All figures in per cent. Rest: Don't know/Can't say Which class of people gain most from reforms? Rich 52 (50) Poor 13 Middle class 11 All three above 13 None of the above 4 All figures in per cent. Rest: Don't know/Can't say Figures in brackets indicate percentage in August 2006 Do you think the Left is slowing down the economic reforms? Yes 34 (28) No 26 All figures in per cent. Rest: Don't know/Can't say Figures in brackets indicate percentage in August 2006 Should bureaucracy and ministries be downsized? Yes 48 No 20 All figures in per cent. Rest: Don't know/Can't say

Just consider the messy inflation in primary food articles. Private procurement, warehousing and a commodity exchange enable farmers to get a better deal. But consumers-39 per cent of whom see rising costs as the biggest worry -are now facing the heat as the Government balks at opening up imports to bring down prices.

Thanks to a rather high growth in the organised sector, those in the unorganised sector are feeling left out. Lack of reforms in the agri sector and lack of institutions to train manpower are inhibiting a large section from getting a share of the boom. Not surprisingly 52 per cent believe the rich gain most from the reforms and 39 per cent think majority of Indians are still suffering. Asymmetry of information and lack of empowerment too cannot be fixed by mistaking articulation of inclusive growth for action. Unless the Government gets its act together to bring those waiting at the base camp to join in on the expedition, the conquest of Mount 10 growth will be politically perilous and economically unviable.

-By Shankkar Aiyar

Index