In The Line Of Fire

A series of political missteps sees President Pervez Musharraf's carefully cultivated image of a well-meaning reformer take a severe battering and raises questions about his continuance in power. But the general feeling is that his survival instincts would see him through.

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Nevertheless, it is highly unlikely the General may have relished the astounding surfeit of policy disasters buffeting him and his Government for the last 12 months. The latest imbroglio with the judiciary, that saw the legal fraternity and Opposition members taking to the streets to protest his attempts to sack Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry, is the most recent in a series of catastrophes that Musharraf has had to contend with. His carefully cultivated image of a well-meaning reformer has certainly taken a battering. It is still a moot point whether his public relations managers will be able to resurrect his image in the eyes of the nation and the international community before September, when his re-election as president comes under the scanner.

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BACKLASH Demonstrators censure Musharraf at a protest rally in Karachi against the suspension of Chief Justice Chaudhry

The fracas in Balochistan had signalled the downslide. Pakistan's largest province, in terms of land area, has always been restive, with tribal sardars often dictating terms to the Federal Government. Critics flay the high levels of poverty and illiteracy in the sparsely populated province as well as what they term the unfair exploitation of its vast natural and mineral resources. Over the years, successive federal governments have kept a tenuous hold on the province by bribing and cajoling the sardars who are regularly accused of misusing federal grants for their own personal ends and of running brutal private fiefdoms.

Under Musharraf, a drive to pump billions of dollars to develop the province's infrastructure-in particular, the strategic sea port of Gwadar-and establish it as a trade corridor between the Gulf and the Central Asian republics had brought together disparate groups to oppose the plans. While the sardars saw them as an attempt to undercut their authority and their control over their people, Baloch nationalists suspected a sinister move by the Punjab establishment to usurp control of the province's resources. Not before long, the two sections joined to put up a fierce resistance. There commenced a shadowy guerrilla war targeting vital national infrastructure, particularly the pipelines transporting natural gas from the region to the rest of the country.

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RISING DIN Lawyers agitate in Lahore as Chaudhry (below) arrives at the Supreme Court in Islamabad for a hearing

Matters came to a head last year with the mysterious death of Nawab Akbar Bugti after the cave he had holed up in collapsed during a military action. Bugti, one of Balochistan's most prominent sardars, had been accused by the Government of funding the guerrilla war in conjunction with Indian and Afghan agents, and his fighters of targeting Musharraf during the President's visit to the provincial capital, Quetta.

Whatever the truth in the Government's allegations, the fallout of the killing of a political opposition leader-though hardly a saint-in a military operation did not help Musharraf's image. Whispers that Musharraf had ordered Bugti's end, egged on by personal anger at his helicopter being targeted, refused to die down. Ever since Bugti's death, there has been a record number of disappearances of political activists from Balochistan, allegedly kidnapped by intelligence agencies for their involvement in 'anti-state activities'. On last count, 437 of such cases had been documented by the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan.

Unexplained disappearances of Baloch nationalists, together with hundreds of others suspected to be Islamist militants, echoed in Pakistan's Supreme Court, with the chief justice, now ostensibly on forced leave, taking suo motu notice of them. Chaudhry's unrelenting pressure on the intelligence agencies and the police to trace the missing persons, many say, was an embarrassment for Musharraf and his establishment and, consequently, a major instigation for the move against the chief justice.

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LAWLESS Mayhem in Karachi after supporters of Balochistan's tribal chief Bugti went on a rampage following his death

Even as Balochistan continued to fester, the Government took steps to keep it hidden from public view. The respected daily Dawn publicly claimed that its refusal to oblige the Government resulted in official ads-constituting some 30 per cent of the paper's advertising revenue-being slashed. Its management has gone to court to protest what it labels as "unfair" attempts to muzzle "freedom of the press as guaranteed under the Constitution". The recent attack by police on the offices of Geo TV was condemned by the President as "a conspiracy against my Government". But in the context of the lash out against Dawn and, more recently, the one-day ban on Geo TV's current affairs programme "Aaj Kamran Khan Ke Saath", the picture emerging so far of the Government's tolerance of dissent is far from rosy.

Even more serious are reports of a number of journalists having been picked up and detained for reporting on 'sensitive' matters, especially the US-inspired war against terror in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. Apparently, the Government is particularly thin-skinned to the popular perception that it is allowing the Americans a free rein in Pakistan. One journalist, Hayatullah Khan, was found murdered six months after he disappeared. Khan had vanished without a trace soon after providing photographs to the Associated Press as proof that an American Hellfire missile had killed alleged Al-Qaeda leader Hamza Rabiya in the Waziristan tribal area, refuting Government denials of any American mission on Pakistani soil. While the Government has strongly repudiated involvement of any of its agencies in Khan's abduction or killing, the international Committee to Protect Journalists has taken a dim view of the rising number of cases of harassment and physical threat to journalists in the country.

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DISQUIET Taliban militants stand guard at a market place in Waziristan; (right) Bhutto at a media meet in London

For Musharraf, all of this must seem like a huge turnaround. Until recently, he was widely praised for his glasnost policy towards the media. Certainly, in many ways, the policy regarding the media under his tenure has been far more liberal than that of many of his democratic predecessors. Rapidly mushrooming private television and radio channels is a testament to Musharraf's vow to free up the airwaves. There is also little doubt that, for the most part, newspapers and TV channels have been allowed to voice as harsh a commentary as they deemed fit on him and his policies. Perhaps then, a logical argument would be that the pressure of fighting on so many fronts is taking a toll.

One of the most critical issues confronting the general-president is the resistance put up by the local populace in the semi-autonomous tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. Here, under pressure from the US to flush out foreign militants allied with the Taliban, Pakistan sent in its army for the first time, defying severe criticism from the Opposition parties. The action backfired, resulted in the deaths of over 700 soldiers and ended up fuelling the local resistance till it blazed out of control. Eventually, the army was forced to beat a retreat, signing an agreement with tribal elders as a face-saving measure. While the agreement called on the local tribes not to shelter foreign militants and to prevent attacks across the border from their territories, the US interpreted it as a breather for Taliban forces looking to regroup and stage attacks within Afghanistan.

The rising tide of insurgency in Afghanistan has also provided US lawmakers and Afghan President Hamid Karzai with ammunition to blame Pakistan for sheltering Taliban militants and Musharraf for "not doing enough". There is now a steady stream of visitors, including recently US Vice President Dick Cheney and Defence Secretary Robert Gates, urging Musharraf reportedly "to do more".

As the chorus against Pakistan reaches deafening levels-some claim Taliban leader Mullah Omar and Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden are being sheltered by Pakistan intelligence, without any proof whatsoever-the pressure on Musharraf is also mounting. He is trapped between the fairly unrealistic demands of Pakistan's western allies and the emotional responses of a very large number of Pakistanis who view the US presence in Afghanistan as hegemonic and the General's actions in the tribal areas as a sell-out to American interests.

In the midst of it all, the spectre of terrorism emanating from the policies in the tribal areas continues to haunt Pakistan. A spate of suicide bombings last month in Islamabad and the North-West Frontier Province-unheard of in Pakistan before 9/11-were linked directly by officials to Baitullah Mahsud, a militant on the run in South Waziristan. Mahsud has vowed to avenge a bloody attack claimed by Pakistani military forces on a remote seminary in the tribal areas which Musharraf alleged was training suicide bombers. Former prime minister Benazir Bhutto has also warned of Talibanisation of the tribal areas as reports filter in of militants imposing a ban on music, videos and even shaving of beards by barbers in Bajaur.

Adding to the President's woes is the lack of a significant breakthrough in talks with India over Kashmir. Despite competing views from military and civilian hawks, Musharraf had promised Pakistanis that lasting peace with India would be of great benefit to the country. As India drags its feet over the issue-a scenario the hawks in the establishment had been predicting all along-the disaffection of the general population, particularly the Kashmiri militants reined in by the Government, with Musharraf grows. The only silver lining so far seems to be the enthusiasm with which leaders of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference have embraced Musharraf's proposals on Kashmir. It is generally believed by both critics and supporters of the President that Musharraf and his Government genuinely want to put Kashmir behind them. For this to happen, however, there has to be some tangible movement that Musharraf can hold up as the fruit of detente.

As the date for the next general elections draws closer, Musharraf also faces a dilemma over his own continuation in office. There are two issues at stake: Musharraf's re-election as president and his hold over the office of the army chief. While the President would certainly like to continue as army chief, speculation is that the Supreme Court may not be amenable to extending the relaxation it had granted him earlier. He can also be more certain of being re-elected president when his current term expires in October by the sitting Parliaments, comprising a majority of his political allies. The Opposition is adamant that it is morally wrong for Musharraf to seek re-election from the sitting Parliaments and that he should make his bid for a fresh term in office after the general elections.

This impasse has spawned a flurry of rumours about an emergency being clamped on the country, of plans to rig the elections and of the sitting Parliaments' tenure being extended by a year in view of the prevailing political scenario. For his part, Musharraf has negated these rumours in categorical terms. But the speculation is unlikely to die down and pressure from the international community to allow more space for democracy will only grow as the election date nears.

Musharraf's present predicament is not helped by the furore over the handling of the judiciary. Most analysts agree the imbroglio has helped the Opposition coalesce at a time when the General is under increasing pressure from his allies in Washington. Sources in the establishment claim the entire episode was instigated by overzealous sleuths of a certain intelligence agency in concert with a section of influential politicians and judicial officers with vested interests. They also hint at influence exerted by the intelligence agency to compel the advocate general of Sindh, Anwar Mansoor Khan, to withdraw his resignation tendered in protest against the treatment of the judiciary. Musharraf may have to reassess the role of this outfit-also responsible for 'managing' Balochistan-if he wants to make amends.

Whether the current crisis snowballs into a wider movement against Musharraf or peters out will depend largely on how the President controls events from now on and on the mercurial Benazir Bhutto. Several analysts are of the view that the General has made a headstart at damage control by distancing himself from the unsavoury events of the past few days. They are also intrigued by the role being played by Bhutto and her Pakistan People's Party (PPP). Much to the consternation of hardliners, like the Jamaat-e-Islami's Qazi Hussain Ahmed, Tehrik-e-Insaaf's Imran Khan and Sharif-led Pakistan Muslim League's Chaudhry Nisar, Bhutto has been relatively soft in criticising Musharraf and key leaders of the PPP have failed to show up at the protest rallies. Rumours about a possible rapprochement between Bhutto and the army have been doing the rounds for a long time. Even as she denies any deal with the military, Bhutto is cautious about aligning herself with the religious parties baying for Musharraf's blood. There is a palpable feeling within the PPP that such an alignment would allow the religious entities to hijack the agenda and damage her secular credentials with the West.

Suspicion is also growing in the legal fraternity that their movement is being hijacked by political interests and that they may be playing into the hands of forces with sinister motives. With senior-most judge Justice Rana Bhagwandas taking over as the acting chief justice-a demand voiced by the legal fraternity-protests are expected to simmer down even as attention veers to the Supreme Judicial Council's hearing against Chief Justice Chaudhry on April 3. Once passions calm down, the Government could attempt a reconciliation. Luck, it seems, may yet favour the General.

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