Self-Goal

By announcing an unexpected compensation for the Gujarat riots victims with an eye on Muslim votes in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress gives the state BJP the Hindutva issue on a platter at a time when the state Congress is showing signs of revival. IndiaToday's Uday Mahurkar reports.

Last week when the Congress-led Union Government announced a compensation package of Rs 106 crore for the 2002 Gujarat riots victims, apparently after an understanding with Muslim religious leaders and with an eye on Muslim votes in Uttar Pradesh polls, the reaction in Gujarat was quite baffling. While the state VHP denounced it as a sell-out to the Muslims, the Gujarat Congress tried to remain as low-toned on it as possible.

The step, forced by the Congress high command to the discomfiture of a section of Gujarat Congress leaders, didn't find even a mention in a public function that the party organised soon after the announcement. The reason behind the Congress stance: the fear that the package, which gives Rs 3.5 lakh to the kin of the person killed in the riots over an above the prescribed compensation that such people have already availed of, could become a potential issue for the Hindutva brigade in general and Chief Minister Narendra Modi in particular on the eve of the Assembly polls.

Clearly, the question being asked was whether the Congress high command scoring a self-goal by taking the step at a time when the party was showing signs of revival in the state, thus altering the impression that its rival Modi had a cake walk on hands in the poll contest. In fact, many felt that just when the Gujarat Congress was beginning to find its grooves, the high command weighed down by its stakes in Uttar Pradesh has delivered a blow to its chances in the state by announcing the wholly unexpected package in which some of the influential leaders of the ultra-conservative Deoband school who are behind the minority bandwagon in the country reportedly played a big role. As a Congressman remarked: " Uttar Pradesh has obviously more value for our national leaders than Gujarat. But by writing off Gujarat, they are committing a great mistake. Gujarat Congress is in fact on a revival path. "

The Gujarat Congress claimed that the compensation for the riot victims was for both Muslims as well as Hindu victims but scarcely any imagination is required to know that it is meant for the Muslim riot victims and wouldn't have been announced had the Muslims not formed a majority of the 2002 Gujarat riot victims. The response from the state VHP was electric. Observed VHP leader Jaideep Patel: " Why didn't the Congress announce such packages for terror victims of Mumbai bomb blasts or victims of other terror attacks including Akshardham? The reason is simple. The majority victims in these incidents were Hindus. The Congress has become a slave of Muslims. It is playing to the Pan-islamist tune of the Wahhabi Deobandis." As a senior BJP leader put it: "This compensation with an eye on Muslim votes will turn out to be Congress Mrityupatra (letter of death).

Interestingly, Modi continues to draw enthusiastic crowds in his fifth year as chief minister, thus indicating that his personal popularity remains high. In fact, ever since Modi began his second innings in December, 2002, he has invariably maintained an edge over his Congress rivals. However, the edge, which appeared very thick till recently, has been showing signs of some wear in the past two months if the public response to the political programmes of the Congress has been any indication, particularly in rural areas

The Congress has suddenly begun getting a better response to its programmes in Central Gujarat and also in South Gujarat in terms of public involvement in sharp contrast to what it did just six months ago. Just six months ago, the Congress used to be at its wits end collecting crowds for its political programmes. The change was first visible at Sonia's tribal rally in Dahod district two months ago at which Sonia dedicated to the tribals the amendment in the Forest Act that the UPA Government has made recognising the tribals' right over forest wealth including land. It was one of the biggest rallies ever addressed by Sonia in Gujarat. To counter the Congress's tribal move, Modi announced a Rs 15,000 crore developmental package for the state's tribals areas. The nip in the Congress' feet was also visible at the Dalit Akrosh rally that it organised recently in Gandhinagar to highlight the Modi Government's alleged failures on the Dalit front.

The strategy charted out by Sonia's political advisor Ahmed Patel, Gujarat Congress chief Bharat Solanki and Union Minister Shankarsinh Vaghela to counter Modi hinges around pitting Mahatama Gandhi against Modi's mix of development and Hindutva by organising programmes along Gandhian themes and selling Modi's development theme as another ' India shining debacle' while propagating that Modi will fall on the wayside eventually like Chandrababu Naidu. It seeks to paint him as an elitist by selling Modi's numerous festival programmes and investment meets as no more than empty jamborees meant to prop him up.

The strategy has been backed by meticulous planning by a diligent Solanki who is proving to be the best Gujarat Congress chief in many years, thanks to the sense of purpose and vision that he has shown. The planning carries the stamp of RSS-like planning and has involved training of party workers under the tag of ' Janmitra Shibirs '. What's more the mature approach of Ahmed Patel has kept the dissensions in the party under check. Says an enthusiastic Solanki : " We are fully geared up to meet the electoral challenge. Eventually the Modi bubble will burst "

But countering a consummate political player like Modi is an uphill task. Knowing where his strength lies Modi has been organizing huge women's empowerment rallies besides imaginative youth programmes to tap women and youth. Two such women's rallies last week in Godhra and Bhuj were truly huge and drew an electric response. Then he has announced an ambitious scheme called Sagar Khedu ' worth Rs 11,000 crores for the development of coastal areas. Significantly, Modi's developmental theme is based on a much stronger plain than the IT-centric Naidu because it focuses on water and power that touch the smallest men unlike IT. And his Government has done some commendable work in both these sectors. As he puts it : " I speak through work and I believe if your intentions are right than fruits are bound to come. Let the time come and people will know the truth " .

Modi is busy charting out a political strategy which would have the right mix of development and Hindutva. Right now he is playing the developmental tune knowing very well that harping on the aggressive Hindutva rhetoric at this point will prove premature since polls are still eight months away. So he is reserving all the Hindutva ammunition for the last round. It is in that last round that the Congress high command might end up realising that it was imprudent to play its national politics over Gujarat riot victims ".

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