Drawing A Bloodline

By storming the Lal Masjid, Musharraf may have won the battle, but the war with the radical Mullahs has just begun

Musharraf’s detractors, particularly the leaders of religious parties and clerical elite, say the bloodshed that turned the mosque red could have been avoided had the President given negotiations a chance and shown a bit of flexibility. While mystery shrouds the reality of backdoor negotiations that were said to have continued until moments before army’s elite troopers were let loose on the holed-up militants, protests have erupted all over the country to avenge the killing of Ghazi and his radical followers who had launched a Taliban-style campaign in February this year for the implementation of Islamic laws. Hundreds of demonstrators in Peshawar, chanting slogans against Musharraf and the US, swore to draw their revenge from the military ruler who came to power in 1999 after booting out a democratically elected Government.

PICTURE SPEAK

RED ALERT: (clockwise from left) Lal Masjid; an army vehicle moves towards the mosque; Ghazi, the hardline cleric who died; Musharraf

After intelligence reports that extremists may unleash a string of revenge suicide attacks targeting Government installations and functionaries, security forces have been put on high alert in the entire country particularly in North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Balochistan, bordering Afghanistan, where religious schools have close links with Lal Masjid. Though no Bhindranwale, Ghazi may well be the new martyr of an otherwise low-profile Shariah movement in the country.

The situation becomes even more complex for Musharraf as religious-political parties appear to be ready to channelise the public anger and convert it into their political strength ahead of general elections that are due this year or early 2008. The rightwing radical Jamaat-i-Islami’s head Qazi Hussain Ahmed has already declared that the Lal Masjid assault has drawn a ‘bloodline’ between the people and the army. His rather moderate political comrade Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam’s head, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who is also the leader of the Opposition, appears perturbed and blames the Government for the carnage that took away Islamabad’s innocence.

Having a track record of using brute force to crush dissent and justifying it as part of the global war on terror, it is feared that the military-controlled Government will quickly resort to hard-handed tactics to quell the backlash that has only been spreading. Attacks by militants in NWFP last week that killed eight policemen and left the tent-housed offices of two aid agencies in flames were only a warning of things to come. Baitullah Mahsud, a key Pakistani Taliban leader based in the tribal area of South Waziristan, has reportedly sworn to avenge the mosque killings. Other “ungoverned spaces”, particularly in the tribal areas, may step up their ‘revenge’ actions, intelligence sources say. The killing of Chinese mechanics last week near Peshawar, providing repair backup to Chinese tri-wheelers, was a crude retaliation to the way the security forces had snubbed the Lal Masjid vigilantes for abducting some Chinese masseurs in Islamabad in the last week of June.

As the shadows of rightwing showdown with the military grow, an ambitious Benazir Bhutto, who has been negotiating a comeback with Musharraf behind closed doors, has defended the army action, saying that the President made the right decision. “I’m glad there was no ceasefire with the militants,” she said in a statement. “There will be a backlash, but some time we have to stop appeasing the militants. We can’t afford to keep appeasing them,” she was quoted as saying in the Urdu-language daily Aaj. Her statement, apparently a message to her Washington backers, may have pleased Musharraf, but annoyed the religious leadership that her party has been courting in a bid to enhance its bargaining position with the military.

The raid has at least partly eased a campaign supported by Bhutto’s secular, pro-democracy PPP to unseat Musharraf over his suspension of the country’s chief justice in March. “There is clear evidence from the military operation that the Government is very serious about preventing ‘Talibanisation’ of the country,” says Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, chief of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League. But the raid has merely added to Islamic hardliner’s perceptions that Musharraf is a US stooge. “If Musharraf can demolish masjids and madrassas to please the American infidels, all madrassa students, clerics and even moderate Muslims should take to the streets and demolish his dictatorship,” said Qari Sher Afzal, a senior MMA leader.

While the media in Pakistan praised the Government for the action, the powerful clergy represented by Wafaqul Madaris of the Deobandi school of thought decided to withdraw their otherwise cooperative liaison with the Musharraf Government. The delegation of clerics led by the old Taliban admirer Maulana Rafi Usmani of Darul Uloom Karachi announced that it was disappointed by the way the Government had reacted to its efforts to “resolve” the standoff.

The Government’s mistakes in the entire drama notwithstanding, analysts admit that it exercised the utmost restraint. It kept talking to militants for months and used a variety of channels to reach a settlement. As the Government negotiated with Lal Masjid militants over the past few months, they raided a home, kidnapping three women for allegedly running a brothel, attacked video and music shops, and abducted not only police officers but also eight Chinese nationals. The Government had no option but to retaliate, though the security forces’ response on July 3 was essentially low key.

However, the fighting escalated after Ghazi, 44, refused to show any flexibility to the Government’s efforts to wrap-up the operation without any bloodshed. Ghazi’s attitude only hardened after his brother Abdul Aziz, who was also the head of the mosque and leader of the masjid movement, was caught last week as he attempted to walk out of the security cauldron wearing a burqa. Ghazi was not by any standards the leading cleric of the radical. He used to move in liberal circles and preferred Western-style clothes as a young man before he turned to religion after the assassination of his father Maulana Abdullah, who founded Lal Masjid, in the 1990s. By storming the mosque, Musharraf has ended the radicals’ stronghold in Islamabad but he may just have provoked many more such revolts around the country.

Lessons for India   PICTURE SPEAK GAME OVER: Militants being taken away by the Pakistan Army Political expediency should not come in the way of national interest Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf’s action against the militants holed up in Lal Masjid in Islamabad may not have a direct impact on India, but it will have strategic consequences. While militants killed in the Lal Masjid siege did not belong to any Kashmiri terrorist outfit, with their ganging up against Musharraf, one thing is clear: he will have to face a tough battle for his own survival. Now the General may be forced to take action against militants of all ilks, including those belonging to Kashmiri separatist groups. This may give India some breather, given the rising levels of infiltration from Pakistan, although it cannot afford to lower its guard as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh says Pakistan is finally realising what India has been saying for years—that terrorism is a danger to civilised society. Pakistan’s pre-occupation with the developments in Lal Masjid and its fallout may slow down the Indo-Pak peace process. And that is not because of India, but the domestic situation in Pakistan. There might not be much progress on the composite dialogue process as a beleaguered Musharraf will not be in any position to take politically sticky decisions. This would mean that big ticket issues such as Kashmir, Siachen et al will not inch forward. And while the routine talks will go on, substantive outcomes will be hard to come by. Even the Kashmir deal that the two countries were negotiating, is expected to be put on the backburner. The fact that Manmohan Singh has already tasked his special envoy on Pakistan, former diplomat S.K. Lambah to manage economic diplomacy with Singapore, shows there isn’t much headway in the Indo-Pak peace talks. While Musharraf’s action may deflect attention from the judicial crisis that arose after the suspension of the chief justice earlier this year, the Lal Masjid episode will only tie him down further with domestic issues. With the elections scheduled to take place by the end of the year in Pakistan, his survival is at stake, which is bound to make his position precarious. However, analysts warn India to keep its hands off the current situation in Pakistan. “We are being too cosy with Musharraf, we should widen our options and not do anything which is seen as supporting him,” says former Indian envoy to Pakistan G. Parthasarathy. However, the General’s gamble, will also ensure that he gets a thumbs up from his Western allies, the US in particular, which would spell a subtle diplomatic setback for India given the fact that there will be few takers for India’s argument that Musharraf is not doing enough to curb terrorism. Now, there is a huge silver lining in this. Although critics may blame Musharraf for creating a Pakistani Bluestar, the fact remains that be it a madrassa or a place of worship, no place can be allowed to become a safe haven for militants. It is here that the Indian leadership can take a lesson or two: even though Bluestar kind of operation may not always be the answer, when it comes to the eviction of religious fanatics or terrorists, or curbing their activities, political expediency should not come in the way of protecting national interest. -By Saurabh Shukla

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