AGP GOVERNMENT
Double Game

Mahanta uses the Tata Tea issue to obscure his party's links with the ULFA and his ministry's dismal showing.

By Avirook Sen

On his way to the Borjhar airport near Guwahati on June 7, Assam Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta took a U-turn of a different kind. A bomb exploded just as Mahanta's cavalcade passed the famous Kamakhya temple that morning. The chief minister had a narrow escape. The incident resulted in his taking an important decision: there would be a crackdown on the banned United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) -- at least for public consumption. Within 10 days he realised what a difficult decision it was going to be to implement. After all, the ground realities in Assam during the Asom Gana Parishad's (AGP) rule had to be reckoned with.

Barely a fortnight later, Mahanta was scheduled to address a public meeting in his home constituency of Barhampur in Nagaon district. Something illustrative of the situation in Assam took place in between. On June 17, the Nagaon unit of the AGP signed an agreement with the convener of ULFA's Kalangiri council, making it possible for the meeting to be held without an attempt on the chief minister's life.

The document signed by the AGP had some interesting clauses:

• "ULFA, AGP and AASU (All-Assam Students' Union) will fight jointly against the unified command structure in the state and the withdrawal of black (read: anti-terrorism) laws."
• "The struggle for self-determination of Assam will be delivered on. And this will also have to be done jointly."

Mahanta finally addressed the meeting on June 20, but not before militants had put him and his party in a situation similar to that faced by numerous tea companies in the state. The AGP reacted in the same manner as non-combatant civilians: it acquiesced.

The link forged between Assam's ruling party and the ULFA is not a new one. In the assembly elections of 1996, the AGP's victory had been facilitated by ULFA's support. The AGP promised in its manifesto that Assam had a "right to self-determination" -- exactly what the ULFA has been saying. But to be fair, the pre-election "arrangement" took place at ULFA's initiative. The policy of the late Hiteswar Saikia, Congress chief minister from 1991 to 1996, of creating the sULFA (Surrendered ULFA) had split the ranks of the militants and cost ULFA 3,000 cadre and much goodwill. To ideologues like Sasa Choudhury, the ULFA's "foreign secretary", the Congress' defeat became imperative. The only alternative for ULFA was to support the AGP during the 1996 elections, which it did quite openly. Mahanta had no choice but to accept whatever help he got. The guns were out before the elections, and they got the AGP its votes. "I never approached them to help me; I cannot help it if they do so voluntarily," Mahanta told india today.

It is in expectation of returns on favours rendered that ULFA's press releases refer to Mahanta and the AGP as "betrayers" -- implying they were once on the same side. Before the ULFA was banned in November 1990, when the first Mahanta-led AGP government was dismissed, the group's cadre moved around with impunity. And when Chandra Shekhar, the then prime minister, asked Mahanta what the situation was like in Assam, he replied: "Normal." This, after the Lever group airlifted its executives from tea estates following militant threats.

What ULFA and Mahanta's closest colleagues now realise is that he has changed. But a mature Mahanta, intent on keeping his chair intact, has hardly done the state any good. A government in trouble needs diversions, and Mahanta got one in the Tata Tea-ULFA affair. Truly, there are some failures behind the veil of the investigation against the Tatas:

• Assam is virtually bankrupt. It owes more than Rs 6,000 crore to the Centre and public-sector units (psus). Mahanta has pleaded with the Centre to waive its Rs 3,864 crore debt and sought reimbursement of the Rs 326 crore spent to fight insurgency.
• Between 1990-91 and 1995-96, Assam's public debt went up by Rs 1,000 crore. Admittedly, Mahanta inherited administrative profligacy. Yet, he has done little to reverse or even arrest the phenomenon. Senior bureaucrats privately speak of the state's imminent insolvency. Shackled by a debt it cannot service and unable to raise tax collections due to widespread extremism, Assam, to quote Mahanta, is trapped "in a vicious circle". In fact, the Sales Tax Department -- which accounts for two-thirds of the Government's tax collections -- has turned out to be a large donor to ULFA's coffers.
• Crackdown or no crackdown, there have been 257 killings by militants in 1997. Recently, Bodo militants even targeted the state capital for extortion. There have been some high profile killings: social activist Sanjoy Ghose's murder stands out. The AGP MLA from Majuli -- Ghose's base in Assam -- hasn't said a word of condemnation against ULFA. This clearly indicates the feelings of the AGP's lower rungs about the militant group.
• ULFA may want to unseat Mahanta but could be pre-empted by the Gauhati High Court, where the investigation in the Letter of Credit (LoC) scandal is moving towards conclusion. The scandal relates to disbursement of over Rs 400 crore through the Veterinary Department without proper bank guarantees. It allegedly involves both Saikia and Mahanta. The crucial 12th charge-sheet (11 have already been filed), which may include Mahanta's name, is yet to appear. Mahanta could well use the Tata Tea episode to gain a reprieve from the Centre.

Always one for quickfix solutions, Mahanta tried to draft former Punjab DGP K.P. S. Gill as his security adviser. The plan was thwarted by his cabinet. The opposition to Gill's induction made apparent the AGP's reaction to Mahanta's personal agenda of war against the ULFA. It is a war that most of Mahanta's colleagues don't support.

But like ULFA and Tata Tea, the ministers now realise they are not dealing with a starry-eyed Mahanta, who is now the AGP's sole power centre. The party's culture, once touted as revolutionary, has changed. Staying in power takes top priority now. Sycophancy and patronage have been imported from the Congress. Mahanta has kept all 24 departments with himself; and with reason. "When you have so many portfolios, it is that much easier to dole them out when people have to be won over," says a senior cabinet member. He has a point. After all, to take on the Rs 2,200 crore Assam tea industry and the Tatas, Mahanta needs to make as many friends as he can.

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