Dec 21, 1998

An assertive prime minister has realised that with limited time on his hands he has no alternative but to press ahead with reforms regardless of the RSS.

By Prabhu Chawla with Harinder Baweja and bureau reports

There is precious little Indian politicians have imbibed from Westminster's parliamentary system. But one political adage of a British prime minister has constantly provided solace for the beleaguered. So it was with the distraught Atal Bihari Vajpayee who emerged from the BJP's resounding defeat in last month's assembly elections clutching at Harold Wilson's famous words about a week being a long time in politics.

In his case, it certainly was. December began with Vajpayee pinned down on two fronts. On one side was a buoyant Congress convinced that it was only a matter of time before it was back in power. On the other was a disoriented BJP and an angry RSS sharpening their knives against a weak, uncommunicative and ideologically suspect prime minister. In seven harrowing days, Vajpayee has fought back and, to begin with, has quelled a potential civil war. In turning the tables on his detractors he has emerged, if not stronger, at least more assertive. For a man who has combined his undoubted geniality with perceived spinelessness, it was an uncharacteristic about-turn. If he succeeds in driving home the advantage and reinventing himself, national politics could take a different turn.

It was the hapless BJP President Kushabhau Thakre who was first blown off by the winds of change emanating from Race Course Road. Giving vent to the traditionalists' strong opposition to the dilution of the swadeshi plank in the proposed Insurance Regulatory Authority (IRA) Bill, Thakre spoke out publicly against the Government's indifference to the BJP ideology. "Till yesterday we were saying something, and now our Government is doing just the opposite," he said in an interview that made headlines on December 7. It was also the day the BJP office-bearers were scheduled to meet at Race Course Road.

This was a bit too much for Vajpayee to stomach, not least because he had been at the receiving end of a week of sniping by the RSS. From Ladakh, where he was visiting troops on the frontline, he sent word that unless Thakre ate his words he would not sup with the party that evening. The problem was that the party president was not in an obliging mood. Thakre was, after all, merely echoing the anger of RSS General Secretary K. Sudarshan and Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS) founder Dattopant Thengdi at the Government's departure from dogma. Ultimately, it was Home Minister L.K. Advani's intervention that prevented the party and its prime minister from slugging it out openly.

Advani spoke to Thakre and more or less instructed him to sign on the dotted line. In a statement drafted by Sudheendra Kulkarni of the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), Thakre called upon all BJP MPs "to fully back the IRA Bill when it is introduced and ensure its successful passage". "The Government," he added tamely, "is the best judge of the need for such a bill".

That evening, a triumphant Vajpayee was at his affable best. According to a BJP general secretary who was present, "there was neither acrimony nor any heated exchange, only a realisation of an urgent need to improve coordination between South Block and Ashoka Road", the BJP headquarters.

The next day at the weekly meeting of the BJP parliamentary party, Vajpayee drove home the advantage. Taking their cue from Advani who made a passionate speech against converting swadeshi into an inflexible dogma, the hardliners fell in line. Virender Singh, from whose house the Swadeshi Jagran Manch (SJM) operates in Delhi, apologised to the prime minister for his remarks at the previous meeting. The tempestuous Minister of State for Human Resources Development Uma Bharati, who had chided Vajpayee on the previous occasion, stayed away but later sorted out matters privately with him. Last Thursday, the BJP MPs from south Bihar, who threatened resignation at the Government's delay in creating a separate Vananchal state, publicly expressed regret. Earlier, on December 4 Vajpayee riled the RSS by instructing Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Kalyan Singh to sack the state's Education Minister Ravindra Shukla for creating the Vande Mataram controversy.

Taken at face value, the disciplining of a recalcitrant party represents an absolute victory for Vajpayee. It is, however, not as simple as that. The ceasefire is more the outcome of a negotiated settlement aimed at presenting the prime minister and his Government as being in total command. Away from the glare of publicity, the party and Government have tried to create an institutionalised mechanism to ensure that future initiatives are not derailed by a communications gap, as nearly happened with the IRA Bill. The avowed intention is to put into operation what Vajpayee told the BJP national executive in Gandhinagar on May 2: "The Government will not run the party. It is the party which will run the Government which is working with a spirit of consensus." The measures include:

• Establishment of a programme monitoring unit and redressal grievance cell involving both PMO and the party.

• Daily interaction between PMO and party office to ensure a common media policy.

• Ministers to spare an hour each week for BJP workers and the appointment of one party functionary in each minister's office.

• Holding daily meetings between Vajpayee and Advani besides fortnightly meetings among Vajpayee, Advani, Thakre and Sudarshan.

• Ensuring that different wings of the Sangh Parivar -- VHP, SJM, BMS -- work broadly in tandem.

• Projecting Vajpayee as a people's man. Reviving morning durbar and organising at least one public meeting each month.

• Consultation with party and RSS on policy decisions and political appointments.

• Interaction between the party and its allies at the grassroots.

However, it is one thing to evolve a plan of action. It is quite another to implement it effectively. Under Thakre, the BJP has moved away from aggressive political campaigning to a quiet sangathani (organisational) approach. This may be appropriate for the RSS and its traditional emphasis on the morning shakhas but it is scarcely the recipe for a ruling party that has to reach out not only to the people but also to its allies. Vajpayee, for example, is understandably sore that the BJP has done nothing since the general election to mount joint campaigns with its allies. In states like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, West Bengal, Orissa and to a lesser extent Bihar, the BJP's local units are either at loggerheads with the allies or have no relations with them. Tensions at the top are bound to recur unless accompanied by cooperation at the grassroots.

If the BJP leadership applies its mind, it may be able to overcome some of the party-government hiccups. What may prove more intractable is the RSS problem. Vajpayee has a formidable litany of complaints against the Nagpur politburo. There is exasperation -- and both Vajpayee and Advani are in agreement on this point -- at the intolerable levels of RSS interference in the functioning of the Government. It began with Sudarshan's nocturnal visit that resulted in Jaswant Singh's exclusion from the Cabinet in March and culminated in the RSS veto in September over the removal of Sahib Singh Verma as Delhi chief minister. Says a minister with close RSS connections: "You can tell Atalji to prepare a meal but you can't dictate to him what dishes to cook and which spices to use." Party sources feel that unlike Bhaurao Deoras, who interacted with the BJP on behalf of the RSS until his death in 1992, Sudarshan doesn't focus on the big picture and is loath to concede autonomy to the politicians. Says Madhya Pradesh BJP MLA Babulal Gaur, who faces a similar problem in his state: "Once a driver is hired and given a task, no one has any business to do back-seat driving. It creates confusion and can lead to an accident." It is a sentiment certain to be shared by former Rajasthan chief minister Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, who faced the brunt of RSS harassment for five years.

Restoring the BJP-RSS relationship to an even keel may not prove easy. If the Government feels hamstrung by constant RSS interference, the Nagpur-based organisation nurtures a sense of hurt at not being able to push through its agenda. Unmindful of the constraints of coalition politics, the RSS wants to stick to ideological purity. It is said that Sudarshan and Thengdi are furious with both Vajpayee and Advani for sacrificing swadeshi at the altar of expediency over the IRA Bill. "We had planned a big showdown on the IRA issue. We held back after it was clear that Advani wasn't backing us," says a pro-swadeshi BJP MP. The Government's retreat on the Vande Mataram issue has added fuel to fire. Says a prominent RSS leader: "At this rate our Government will press for the rebuilding of a masjid in Ayodhya."

That may be rather far-fetched but a section in the RSS wants to show once and for all who is boss. The question is: will it precipitate a crisis, as in 1979 and 1990 and engineer a fall of the Government? The Congress is happily waiting for the RSS-Vajpayee contradictions to sharpen as the Government presses with a liberal economic agenda. Or will the RSS decide to give Vajpayee a final chance to redeem himself?

As of now, it seems the RSS has chosen to bide its time, perhaps even observe the truce. However, if Vajpayee's future plans are any indication, the Sangh is unlikely to be too pleased. Vajpayee is not going to stop at the inclusion of Jaswant as foreign minister and Mahajan as information and broadcasting minister. Apart from these valuable additions to his weak parliamentary defence, he is planning a major overhaul of his ministry after the Parliament session. Apart from accommodating the coalition partners -- Mamata Banerjee is very high on his agenda -- Vajpayee plans to be ruthless in weeding out non-performers from his team. Effectiveness and efficiency are going to be his yardstick of judgement. In his present assertive mood, Vajpayee even countenanced shifting Yashwant Sinha from the Finance Ministry earlier this month. He probably hesitated because of a calculation that Sinha would be better able to tackle the SJM and other RSS hardliners on the IRA bill than Jaswant.

That, however, may be a tactical decision. For a man who was never at ease with economic policy, Vajpayee has calculated that his Government will be judged by its economic record. The IRA bill, aimed at raising business confidence and increasing foreign direct investment, is only the first move. The PMO has before it six reports by international experts commissioned by Ratan Tata, Kumaramangalam Birla, Mukesh Ambani of Reliance, Narayana Murthy of Infosys, A.C. Muthiah of SPIC and Nusli Wadia of Bombay Dyeing. Each report has suggested time-bound action plans on subjects such as infrastructure, law, information technology, the services sector, capital markets and food processing. In addition, former Planning Commission member P.N. Dhar is scrutinising working papers on monetary policy, agriculture and investment stimulation. He will present his recommendations to Vajpayee on December 18. The Grand Economic Resurgence Agenda will also be discussed at the second meeting of the Economic Advisory Council this week. Says former revenue secretary N.K. Singh, who is currently handling economic affairs in the PMO: "These decisions will trigger an investment boom in the coming months."

This optimism may be warranted if Vajpayee is able to implement the other clause of his agenda: taming the bureaucracy. With relatively inexperienced ministers at the helm and a fractious coalition pulling in different directions, the bureaucracy has run amok. It has pursued its own agenda. The innovative buyback of shares scheme was punctured by Finance Ministry officials who added so many caveats and riders that the measure failed to inspire the market. The prime minister's directive on restricted foreign travel was simply ignored by ministers and bureaucrats. A routine extension of service of Mizoram Chief Secretary L. Zuala was wilfully withheld by the Ministry of Personnel in violation of policy. The same ministry also misled the prime minister on the proposed appointment of Bhure Lal as head of the Enforcement Directorate.

In the case of vacancies in the boards of public-sector units like Air- India, Indian Airlines, LIC and the nationalised banks, no initiative has been taken to find replacements. As for the Press Information Bureau, it didn't circulate photographs of Vajpayee's visit to Ladakh on the ground there were no instructions to do so. No wonder the Government's achievements have escaped publicity.

Vajpayee was also horrified that the country was being nudged towards another onion-type crisis by a bureaucracy-created scarcity of DAP fertiliser. While the agriculture and fertilisers ministries were involved in a tussle over the retail price of DAP, the farmers were denied supplies. At a meeting convened on December 2, the prime minister was aghast to learn that there was no shortage and that two lakh tonnes were stuck in godowns due to non-availability of wagons and the non-resolution of the price issue. Coupled with a 55,000 tonne import from Jordan and the immediate release of wagons, a 24-hour control room has been established to monitor supplies and report to the PMO on a daily basis.

For the moment, a new crisis may have been averted but the Government cannot be on constant red alert for bureaucratic subterfuge. So far Vajpayee has moved from inertia to crisis management. Now he plans to heed Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu's advice and shift to a proactive gear. This requires both a dedicated team and political confidence. At present he has neither. What he has on his side is widespread abhorrence of political uncertainty and a popular yearning to get going. Vajpayee heads a party that is rooted in an ideology that is yielding diminishing returns. If he continues to assert himself and move from being good to being a leader with a bipartisan agenda, he may find the bureaucracy falling in line, business confidence rising, the voters responding and political opposition wilting.

Three decades ago, Indira Gandhi found herself similarly cornered. She responded with a blend of energy, ruthlessness and idealism. That combination could also see Vajpayee through. If he is willing to take the battle he has begun to its logical conclusion. That is the expectation but also the big question mark.

J. Jayalalitha willing, Vajpayee has till next year's assembly elections in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka to make a mark. If the Congress regains the south, it will go for the kill in Delhi. But then, 10 months is an even longer time in politics

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