February 23, 1998

How have votes Changed Hands since 1996?

Between the 1996 poll and this election, a large number of votes have changed hands among the parties. The change may not be directly reflected in the number of seats. But the panel method adopted here allows a precise estimate of the direction and amount of flow of votes between the two general elections.

The BJP alliance has gained new voters from across the political spectrum. The UF has lost votes to virtually all the parties. Congress has lost voters to the BJP but gained from the UF, minor parties and those who didn't vote in the last election (together shown in the diagram as "Others"). While the UF's losses to the BJP and the Congress are genuine loss of votes, its outflow of votes to "others" is mainly a result of Laloo Yadav deserting the UF in Bihar. This category also includes people who did not vote in the last election but who say that this time they will vote for one of the three main alliances.

This is only the surface picture -- the net flow of votes between the parties. Underneath the surface, things are much more turbulent. Take, for example, the shift of 0.8 per cent from the Congress to the BJP. This is merely the overall result of much larger vote shifts among the panel of voters: a 5.4 per cent move from the BJP to Congress, just outweighed by a 6.2 per cent movement in the opposite direction.

Much of the change is also a result of the different alliances that have been thrown up since the 1996 election. A number of those making the shift from Congress to the BJP are people in the panel who voted for

J. Jayalalitha's AIADMK in 1996 and will vote the same way in 1998. But in 1996, the AIADMK was an ally of the Congress, while now it is an ally of the BJP. Even though they haven't changed the party they are voting for, the effect is of a shift from one alliance to another. Likewise, the split in the Janata Dal and the creation of Laloo's Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar has diverted votes which would have gone to the UF. All these changes appear as votes changing hands in the flow-of-vote model, though in reality these are parties changing sides.

The panel survey can show whether manoeuvres among the political elites actually lead to changes at the ground level. By having a record of individual voting intentions in 1996 and how they say they are going to vote in 1998, it is possible to figure out if they are going along with the leadership; whether loyalty to party overcomes loyalty to an alliance. The evidence thus far suggests that it is indeed so. Almost half of the swing to the BJP block can be seen to be the result of the alliances that party President L.K. Advani has cobbled together over the past few months.

New voters make up 2 per cent of the electorate and remain outside the flow-of-vote model suggested here. Yet, they are a significant part of the emerging political scenario, for the manner in which the new entrants make their choices gives an idea of the shape of things to come. In this context, it is significant to note that the UF and the Congress fall far behind the BJP in attracting the new voters.

Parties are changing their Social Profile

BJP
The BJP seems to have widened its social base without alienating its traditional urban, upper-caste and educated core. There is a big influx of new support from the OBCs, illiterates and rural areas. The playing down of Hindutva rhetoric by the BJP and allies also appears to have worked, with 8 per cent of the Muslims in the sample now saying they would support the saffron coalition.

Women form one group that is showing less enthusiasm for the BJP and its partners. They get 36 per cent of their support from men, but only 28 from women. The allies get a larger support among the youth.

CONGRESS
The resurgence of the party has seen it attracting traditional supporters back into the Congress fold. Whether apologising for the party's role in the destruction of the Babri Masjid had any effect or not is unclear, but there has been a 9 per cent shift in Muslim support back to the Congress. The survey also shows the re-emergence of a gender gap in Congress vote.

The Scheduled Castes, in the past a major component of the Congress rainbow coalition, do not show the same enthusiasm for the new Sonia-driven party. However, the party registers major gains among the Adivasis.

UF
The splits in the JD and the subsequent fracturing of support have seen big changes in the social profile of the UF. The survey suggests a large fall in UF vote among the OBCs as breakaway factions in Bihar, Orissa and Karnataka attract voters from this previously strong group of supporters -- a shift also reflected in the big drop in rural support. Many Muslim voters appear to be heading back to the Congress after deserting it for the UF after Ayodhya. Otherwise, the support base of the UF seems broad and stable, reflecting the underlying regional strength of the coalition partners.

Is there a Sonia swing?

The huge publicity that has accompanied Sonia Gandhi on her short but intensive campaign is having a significant effect on the 1998 campaign. Although most voters either hadn't heard of her or didn't think she mattered, 10 per cent acknowledged that Sonia's campaign has made a difference to the way they will vote.

In all, 5 per cent said that they had switched to Congress because of Sonia. A comparison of the voting intentions of our panel in 1996 reveals that 2 per cent could be shown to have shifted from non-Congress to Congress. This may not sound like much, but a 2 per cent shift to Congress could see them winning more than 20 extra seats, seats that would otherwise have gone to their rivals. This certainly appears to be concrete evidence of a Sonia-inspired swing to Congress.

There may be a broader swing, harder to prove, from people who had become disillusioned with the Congress and were intending to vote for another party, but who have rejoined the party camp when the Gandhi connection came to the fore.

The impact of the Sonia swing is particularly evident in states where the Congress looks set to make seat gains with only small shifts in votes. In Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Maharashtra Sonia has had an effect which could result in big seat gains for the Congress. In Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Bihar where the Sonia show isn't playing as well, the Congress is a minor player in any case.

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