March 23, 1998

Dilip Bobb

Now that the notes have been counted, it's an opportune time for a first-past-the-post mortem. Since the election results produced no clear winners, it may be difficult to assess who's up, who's down and, in cases involving some of the BJP's alliance partners, even sideways. Here's the definitive psephologist's guide to the ins and outs of Indian politics:

Jayalalitha: Definitely in. The new heavyweight now has the mandate to increase her sari collection, topple the DMK, make sure that Subramaniam Swamy's financial future is secure and launch a frontal assault on the Other Woman, namely Sonia Gandhi. In Tamil movies, there's only place for one heroine. Also has the opportunity to get the BJP to smear Sonia as a carpet-bagger, while brushing her own corruption cases under the carpet. It's called killing one bird with two stones, or, in her case, quite a few stones.

Sitaram Kesri: Definitely down and definitely out. Refused to obey the Confucius dictum that behind every successful man, there's a woman waiting to bring him down. Or, the old Congress party saying that when a small tree falls, no one takes any notice. There is also no credence to the rumours that Kesri will be forming a breakaway Congress with his supporters since, at last count, they numbered exactly two, well short of the constitutional requirement.

Bal Thackeray: Down but possibly not out since he has consistently refused to heed the umpire's verdict. Or, obey the rule of the jungle which says that he who rides the tiger, will be difficult to stomach. Still believes he has a divine right to re-enact the Partition, except that the more likely partition will be between him and his remote control.

George Fernandes: Living proof that dinosaurs are not extinct and that stone-age socialism is not dead, as everyone thought, but alive and well and living in a government bungalow in New Delhi. While MNC's quiver in their Bally shoes, public sector enterprises are elated at being able to milk the country dry for another five years, by George.

Sonia Gandhi: Still something of a Sphinx-like riddle in terms of success and failure. Whether she proves to be a hidden asset or the BJP can prove her hidden assets will establish whether getting rid of the Sonia Factor will be as easy as getting rid of Max Factor. Watch this space.

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