March 23, 1998

Perhaps the answer lies in Jayalalitha's own sense of vulnerability. For her, the decisive electoral defeat in 1996 was traumatic because it was accompanied by the humiliation of being thrown into a damp cell like a common criminal. Under no circumstances does she want to repeat that experience and the only way out is to use her political clout to nullify all pending cases against her. She cannot wait for the people to vindicate her. The next assembly election is three years away and that's a long time in the life of unstable coalitions.

For Jayalalitha, the question of who controls the levers of power from Fort St George is very important. Of the nine cases pending against the AIADMK general secretary, eight are being handled by the state Government. The Tamil Nadu Government has even created three special courts to handle the 48 cases involving Jayalalitha, her friend Sasikala Natarajan and other former AIADMK ministers. She has challenged the validity of the special courts in the Madras High Court and a final judgement is expected shortly. Says state Law Minister Aladi Aruna: "Many cases are due for trial. Once hearing starts, the cases will be over within a few months." Adds N.S. Jagannathan, former editor of The Indian Express: "There is no question of anyone saving her in the cases. They are at state level in the Chennai courts. They will take their own course. She will attempt a comeback before there is any adverse judgement against her." Of course, it is also possible that she will be vindicated by the courts.

If the real problem is in Chennai, why then is Jayalalitha so insistent on exercising remote control over the finance and law ministries? Aruna feels that "there is no doubt that Jayalalitha is being pressured by Sasikala" to extract the maximum price from the BJP. Unlike Jayalalitha, Sasikala's real problems are with the Enforcement Directorate (ED) that comes under the jurisdiction of the Centre. Sasikala faces four charges of violating the Foreign

Exchange Regulation Act (FERA) in the operations of the now defunct JJ Television. Plus, there are seven similar cases against her nephews V. Bhaskaran, T.T.V. Dinakaran and V. Sudhakaran (the infamous foster son of Jayalalitha). The AIADMK chief is under an obligation -- both emotionally and otherwise -- to come to Sasikala's rescue. For the past two years, Sasikala has endured a long stint in prison and has steadfastly refused to say anything against Jayalalitha. Any pressure mounted by Sasikala to have compliant ministers in Delhi would certainly have counted in Jayalalitha's calculations. And more so since Swamy shares a common antipathy towards former finance minister P. Chidambaram and Tamil Maanila Congress chief G.K. Moopanar -- the duo that Jayalalitha regards as her real tormentors.

It is possible that what she saw in Delhi last week belied these expectations. Jayalalitha seems to have been somewhat peeved by what she perceived as the BJP's inability to regard her as primus inter pares (first among equals). Insulated from the relatively egalitarian political culture of the BJP alliance by the regime of sycophancy and unquestioning obedience that prevails in the AIADMK, she felt ill at ease in the committee room atmosphere during the discussions on the National Agenda. When she raised a demand for making Tamil an official language at the Centre, it drew some sniggers and it was left to Lok Shakti chief Ramakrishna Hegde to point out why the demand was impractical. But Jayalalitha does not like being contradicted, and certainly not by a leader whose party has only three seats in the Lok Sabha. "You obviously attach greater importance to Hegde and Fernandes than me," she observed bitterly to a BJP leader later. She is also said to have read meaning into Advani inviting her (along with Vajpayee) for lunch without first calling on her at her hotel suite. These perceived slights convinced her that the BJP was not taking her role as the second largest party in the alliance seriously. "If the BJP had its way, it would have crushed us like a plastic coffee cup after use," says a top leader of the AIADMK combine. Others are not so uncharitable. "The BJP will have to learn the art of dealing with Jayalalitha," says one of the AIADMK's allies. It is trying very hard -- Tamil Nadu unit General Secretary L. Ganeshan refused to be deterred by the non-delivery of her letter of support and thanked Jayalalitha for travelling to Delhi "despite being sick". However, it is certainly not going to be easy. Rajiv Gandhi found it taxing and P.V. Narasimha Rao and Sitaram Kesri failed completely to anticipate her moods and sensitivities.

One thing is clear: Jayalalitha does not really like dealing through intermediaries. In the case of the BJP, she would prefer dealing with either Advani or Vajpayee. Unfortunately, the saffron alliance is burdened by too many private mediators, some with personal agendas. Last Tuesday, for example, Jayalalitha was contacted by lawyer Ram Jethmalani demanding to know why she was depriving him of the law portfolio by insisting on Swamy. Although Jethmalani had appeared for Jayalalitha during her legal battle with Swamy, this sort of intervention is said to have displeased her.

Wounded pride, to some extent, seems like a post-facto rationalisation. In justifying her refusal to actually put "unconditional" support to Vajpayee into a letter addressed to the President, Jayalalitha has cited the BJP's "totally negative attitude" to Tamil demands. Those listed include legal safeguards for allowing Tamil Nadu to continue with 69 per cent reservation, the implementation of the interim Cauvery waters award and the restoration of the height of the Periyar reservoir. Curiously, none of these demands featured in her press conference in Delhi on March 10 where she even hinted that her party's non-participation in the government could be reviewed subsequently. She certainly stated quite emphatically that the AIADMK members would grace the Treasury benches. No wonder her abrupt volte face was interpreted as a prima donna's act of pique. This may well be true, but the BJP can hardly overlook the fact that it was also an act of positioning. With 27 MPs, Jayalalitha can demand a price for support to any government. Along with N. Chandrababu Naidu's band of 12, Jayalalitha can decide the complexion of any government in the 12th Lok Sabha.

Of course, it is entirely possible that Jayalalitha will effect another U-turn and re-emerge as a picture of grace, sobriety and sweet reasonableness. Flush with electoral success -- there was a spectacular vote swing of 21.04 per cent to the AIADMK-led alliance -- she knows that her charisma is intact and that she will willy-nilly be courted by all parties. If Vajpayee's outbursts are seen to be swaying public opinion, she may certainly retreat. She may even countenance making Swamy a sacrificial lamb if she is given assurances that her interests will not be overlooked in Vajpayee's elusive search for consensus and good governance.

In the present scenario, Jayalalitha does not stand to gain by ditching the BJP. Regardless of what the rumour mills suggest, any possible Congress-UF arrangement that includes the communist parties and regional players like the Telugu Desam Party and the National Conference would be even more inimical to demands for Karunanidhi's dismissal. Moreover, after her assertion that Sonia's election as prime minister "would be the greatest tragedy" for India, will the Congress continue to view her so indulgently, despite Sharad Pawar's bid to woo her? Electorally too she has to be wary. Says Professor P. Radhakrishnan of the Madras Institute of Development Studies: "If you calculate the margin in almost all the constituencies, the vote percentage of the winning team is not very high. If the assembly elections had been held simultaneously, the dmk-tmc alliance would have won."

In embarrassing the BJP and stalling Vajpayee's victory march, Jayalalitha has clearly made her point. For that matter so has Vajpayee, perhaps with greater effect on public opinion. But this is the time of government formation, not elections. Jayalalitha has both a personal and political agenda. Both are interconnected. If she yields on one, she is certain to be compromised on the other. Sheer expediency plus the vagaries of the numbers game in another hung Lok Sabha implies a decisive role for her group at the Centre. She will set her agenda and pursue it doggedly regardless of who forms the government. For the first time in her political career, she is in the driver's seat in Delhi. No politician will abandon this strategic advantage easily, far less a tough customer like Jayalalitha who is known to combine charisma with ruthlessness. Love it or hate it, both Tamil Nadu and India will have to learn to live with the phenomenon called Jayalalitha. The experience is certain to be heady.

----with K.M. Thomas and L.R. Jagadheesan

INTERVIEW: SUBRAMANIAM SWAMY "Jayalalitha is an astute politician"

He seems to enjoy being the spoiler. Janata Party leader Subramaniam Swamy, who's come between the BJP and a government, spoke to Associate Editor harinder baweja shortly after Atal Bihari Vajpayee was forced to call on the President without the crucial letter of support from AIADMK leader J. Jayalalitha. Excerpts: You seem instrumental in preventing government formation. It is wholly unfair because I am not involved in any way. Jayalalitha is talking directly to the BJP. Well, you figure in her scheme of things. I'm very proud to be part of that front. Don't you think you bargained too hard. Vajpayee had to meet the President without a letter of support from the AIADMK. I haven't overstepped because I am not hankering after any particular portfolio. Jayalalitha is a very astute politician. If she has withheld the letter, it must be for compelling reasons. Would you like to be the finance minister? I would find the finance portfolio challenging. What is the BJP's problem with you? I have no problem with the BJP except that its core policies are not acceptable. I don't know what reservations they have. You disagree with the BJP's core policies but don't mind being part of a government led by it? I don't mind doing it as national duty. I am not making a bid for it. I will discharge my duties. The feeling is that Jayalalitha is pushing for finance because she's worried about her cases ... She's a very capable person. She has fought her cases in court and can look after herself. The BJP doesn't seem interested in having you in the Cabinet. It will be to their loss. What if Jayalalitha were to go ahead without you? She does not have to ask me. She can go ahead. But if that doesn't happen, the BJP will have to answer. None of the other allies is putting as much pressure on the BJP as the AIADMK. With 27 MPs ours is the second largest group in the alliance. It's not just the number of ministers but the portfolios too which will weigh on her mind. The Tamil people are very conscious of this and if the BJP isn't, it will only alienate itself from the people of Tamil Nadu. Why do you change your stand all the time? After the Babri demolition you wanted the BJP leaders charged under TADA and now you don't mind being part of a BJP government? I'll join if the AIADMK tells me to. It's not a BJP country. It's the government of India. I will discharge my duty under the Constitution of India.

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