April 26, 1999

The immediate task before the BJP- led alliance is put up a united front and check desertions in order to prevent the formation of a new government.

By Saba Naqvi Bhaumik

An odd cast of characters had gathered in Atal Bihari Vajpayee's office in Parliament during the nail-biting finale to the confidence vote. Besides Vajpayee's personal staff, there was actor Shatrughan Sinha at a loss for words -- for a change. There was former Delhi chief minister Sahib Singh Verma making it a point, as always, to be seen in the "right place". There was journalist and BJP Rajya Sabha member Arun Shourie watching quietly from the sidelines with S. Gurumurthy, the RSS ideologue and swadeshi hardliner, believed to be one of the strongest anti-Vajpayee voices in the Sangh Parivar.

In the end, loyalist and dissenter were united in wanting the government to survive. Information and broadcasting minister Pramod Mahajan and parliamentary affairs minister Rangarajan Kumaramangalam, both equipped with the latest Motorola cell phones, had been given the job of "managing" the numbers. But in the last lap of the frantic race, it was the senior leadership of the BJP directly dealing with the small parties. L.K. Advani himself spoke to Tamil Maanila Congress leader G.K. Moopanar while Vajpayee got a personal assurance from Kanshi Ram on the phone hours before the voting. Eventually though, as Vajpayee put it, "some people went back on their promises".

Far from sulking, the immediate task before the BJP-led alliance is to put up a united front. The idea is not merely to check splits and desertions but prevent the formation of a new government. "There is only one possible government in the 12th Lok Sabha, it is a Vajpayee government," says L.K. Advani. According to him, if the alliance remains firm, the President will either have to re-invite Vajpayee to form a government or dissolve the Lok Sabha. The logic is based on his belief that any alternative claimant will have to demonstrate the written support of more than 269 MPs -- the support given to the Vajpayee government.

This positioning has a more practical basis. Out of power, the immediate casualty for the BJP could be the Kalyan Singh Government in Uttar Pradesh which had mustered a majority with the help of breakaway groups from the Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). A change at the Centre could result in a party like the Loktantrik Congress ditching Kalyan. Even if this does not happen, the collapse of the Vajpayee government has already resulted in dissidents within the BJP blaming Kalyan for the failure to broker a deal with Mayawati. Complains a Vajpayee loyalist: "The Centre was sacrificed to satisfy one person's ego." A Congress-BSP tie-up, it is feared, would also threaten the BJP's upper caste and Dalit vote banks in Uttar Pradesh.

Meanwhile, the task of preparing for the assembly elections in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh is also a priority. While the tie-up with Ramakrishna Hegde's Lok Shakti seems on in Karnataka, the Telugu Desam Party is yet to decide whether it would benefit from any electoral arrangement with the BJP. Because of the imperatives of expanding into new territory, the BJP will continue to seek regional alliances and project Vajpayee as the prime ministerial candidate. Party strategists are clear that this is still not the time to project the exclusivist Hindutva stance.

As the BJP gets into election mode, it would have to shake off the apathy at the organisational level. Party President Kushabhau Thakre, who completes a year of his two-year term in May, is widely viewed as a disaster. The boldest move to rejuvenate the organisation is to reinstall Advani as the party chief. BJP leaders, including Vajpayee, and others in the Sangh Parivar have already indicated their approval of the change. If all goes as planned, Advani will be installed as party president after the budget session ends mid-May.

For the BJP, it would be just like old times then. The "true leader" Advani leading a muscular opposition party with the amiable Vajpayee continuing to give sterling performances on the floor of the House.

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