Web Only Feature

FIFTH FRONT

The upcoming asssembly elections in madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh may pave the way for a Congress-led national front, observes India Today's Neeraj Mishra.

In the Indian political landscape ideologies often remain in the realm of the ideal. It is hardly surprising therefore that in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the fear of close contests is driving political parties to junk their ideological niceties and focus on numbers instead.

While a BJP alliance with the BSP seems almost a certainty in the run-up to the assembly elections Madhya Pradesh, the saffron party might actually tie up or come to an understanding with the newly formed NCP under V.C. Shukla in Chhatisgarh too. The NCP has an alliance with the Congress in Maharashtra but it may not be averse to a post-poll pact with the BJP or as some observers believe even a pre-poll arrangement. If that is not weird enough, then the Congress, which has been consistently boasting of driving its own lonely furrow, may ally with the RPI, a naxalite-supported candidate, Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal in Madhya Pradesh to counter the threat of Mayawati in the adjacent and contiguous regions. It may seek or woo the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GGP) and the Chhattisgarh Mukti Morcha (CMM) in Chhattisgarh.

Of course, no single leader is willing to venture out and talk about alliances just now but it is at the back of everyone's minds. "We will contest all 90 seats but I am not ruling out any seat adjustments with either the BJP or anyone else who might help the equation against the Congress,'' says a confident Shukla whose massive June 10 rally in Raipur has suddenly made him more confident. On the other hand, every BJP leader in Chhattisgarh from state president Raman Singh to veteran Lakhiram Agarwal rules out alliances with anyone, even the BSP. "The BSP is not a major factor here and we would anyway like to contest all seats on our own steam. After all, it is the Vajpayee government which has gifted Chhattisgarh to its people,'' says Agarwal. But even they accept the NCP to be a factor now and have supported the Chhattisgarh bandh called by it after the murder of NCP treasurer Ramautar Jaggi. The Congress under Ajit Jogi is far more resourceful and confident to reject the idea of a pre-poll or even post-poll alliance with anyone. "What is the need ? We will get a clear majority on our own based on development in the past three years,'' says Jogi.

But the political exigencies are such that no one can be blind to alliances. For the past three assembly elections, the BJP has consistently won more than 30 seats out of 90 in the state. It won 51 in 1990, 30 in 1993 and 36 in 1998 of which it lost 12 to floor crossing. It has also run the Congress very close in terms of voting percentage lagging behind only by a marginal 2 per cent. If it were to align with either the CMM or the GGP or come to a seat adjustment with them leaving about 10 seats for them, the BJP might be able to raise its combined tally to 40 effortlessly. This will put the Congress in a spot which has normally been backed by the GGP and has won 22, 54 and 46 seats on its own in the past three assembly elections which means that it has won a clear majority twice running.

The crucial factor in Chhattisgarh is the NCP led by Shukla. He had won 13 seats in the 1990 assembly elections while contesting as a Janata Dal leader. This had put spokes in the Congress wheel as its tally shrunk to 22. Even Jogi agrees that only Congressmen can damage the Congress, so Shukla might prove more than a handful. "Another crucial factor is that independents and parties like the CMM, BSP and GGP may actually opt to align with the NCP rather than the Congress or BJP because in the case of post-poll alliances, all their MLAs can hope to become ministers,'' says political analyst Girijashankar. Still most opponents feel wary of Jogi whose development agenda gives him a better start than the Congress had in the past three elections.

In Madhya Pradesh, Digvijay Singh has been preparing for the final countdown with the BSP in mind. The BSP has won 11 seats in the past two elections but its nine MLAs left now mean much more in a house of 230 (earlier it was 11 out of a combined 320). More than the MLAs it had finished third in more than 50 constituencies in the elections in 1998 and its total voting percentage was six which is more than the difference between the Congress and the BJP. If the BJP and the BSP go togetherm, then the Digvijay will need the RPI, SP, JD and independents to take on their combined strength. His camp followers believe that he may have already found a way out of forging alliances-give Congress tickets to wining candidates in other parties rather than seeking allainces. Those like Aindal Singh Kansana of the BSP have already been wooed and made ministers. He has also broken the SP and has shamelessly wooed the RLD which has no presence in Madhya Pradesh. The state Congress put up the RLD MLAs in Bhopal recently in the hope that Ajit Singh would help out when the going gets tough in north Madhya Pradesh and Vindhya. A combined Mulayam Singh Yadav and Ajit Singh would perhaps be able to take on the might of Mayawati, at least in Madhya Pradesh.

For the BJP on the other hand this is a do-or-die election. If it loses this time it will perhaps be wiped out from the state for some time to come because loosing three elections on the trot can break the best of parties. It had lost the 1998 elections to the Congress because of poor performance in its own backyard of Malwa. It garnered only 26 out of 87 seats in Malwa region while it had won 72 in 1990 and 47 in 1993 to the Congress' 11 and 36 respectively. The Congress with 58 seats in Malwa last time wiped out the deficit from Chambal and Vindhya. This time the BJP appears on surer ground but the BSP has also made inroads in Ujjain, Shujalpur and Dewas districts of Malwa. Three cornered contests may then hurt the BJP more than the Congress. The BJP may thus be more interested in wooing the BSP than vice-versa.

The alliances made in the forthcoming elections and the test to which they will be put during campaigning will determine which are the long-term partners. At present, most observers believe that there will be three formations at the Centre during the 2004 general elections-one led by the BJP, another led by the Congress and the third an amalgamation of forces of those who choose not to join either front. To a very large extent the contours of this third force will emerge from the alliances made and broken in the assembly elections in the two states.

BUSINESS TODAY | INDIA TODAY PLUS | SMART INC.
MUSIC TODAY | ART TODAY | THE NEWSPAPER TODAY | SYNDICATIONS TODAY

Write to us | Subscriptions | Advertise with us
© Living Media India Ltd